Why the demand for commercial aircraft is expected to increase

By MICHAEL WAKABI

Despite the sharp decline in commercial aviation caused by the Covid-19 pandemic, the industry is still on track to regain its long-term trajectory.

Demand is expected to reach 19,000 new commercial aircraft over the next 10 years and peak at 43,000 by 2040.

Forecasts are still down 8% on the 50,000 planes Boeing predicted in its pre-crisis forecast for 2019, but still more optimistic than last year. This demand will be fueled by a combination of current aircraft replacements and long-term growth in passenger and air cargo demand in long-haul markets.

Four regions of the world – China, Europe, North America and Asia-Pacific – will account for 80% of the demand for new aircraft, with the remainder coming from emerging markets.

Passenger traffic fell 66% in 2020 from 2019 as governments closed borders and introduced travel restrictions as the Covid-19 epidemic quickly spread across the world over a period of time five months.

The measures have frozen the global economy, with travel now expected to rebound to 2019 levels, starting in 2023. The IATA airlines lobby has said industry losses for 2020 are estimated at $ 126.4 billion. , while an additional $ 47.7 billion is expected this year.

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However, in its 10- and 20-year market forecast released on September 14, U.S. aircraft manufacturer Boeing sees no impact on the long-term outlook, with growth also expected to drive the need for 2.1 million people to fly and fly. maintain. global fleet of commercial aircraft during the period. The aircraft manufacturer sees a need for 612,000 pilots, 886,000 cabin crew and 626,000 maintenance technicians.

“The new Commercial Market Outlook (CMO) reflects that the global market is recovering largely as Boeing anticipated in 2020. Demand for domestic air travel is leading the recovery, with intra-regional markets expected to follow as markets continue to rise. health and travel restrictions are loosening, followed by long-haul travel returning to pre-pandemic levels by 2023 to 2024, ”said Stan Deal, president and CEO of Boeing Commercial Airplanes.

The planned 19,000 planes are valued at $ 3.2 trillion at current prices, while the 43.610 planes, which will be needed over the two decades to 2040, will bring manufacturers $ 7.2 trillion. The latest forecasts are more optimistic, adding 500 planes to the numbers projected last year.

Single-aisle planes with more than 90 seats will generate a demand of approximately 32,660 of the projected total, followed by 7,670 wide-body aircraft and 2,390 regional jets that can accommodate up to 90 passengers. The cargo market will require 890 widebody jets, which underpins the continued growth of e-commerce and the subsequent demand for speed and reliability. Boeing predicts that the global cargo fleet will be 70% larger in 2040 compared to 2019.

“While we remain realistic about today’s challenges, the past year has shown that passenger traffic rebounds rapidly when the traveling public and governments have confidence in the health and safety of air travel. Our industry continues to play a vital role in bringing people together and transporting essential supplies, ”said Mr. Deal.

Passenger traffic growth is projected at 4% per year, but in the short term this will largely depend on the pace and distribution of the Covid-19 vaccination.

Countries that have vaccinated with a wider vaccination distribution have shown a rapid resumption of air travel, as governments relax national restrictions and open borders to international travel.

“As our industry recovers and continues to adapt to meet new global needs, we remain confident in the long-term growth of aerospace. We are encouraged by the fact that scientists have delivered vaccines faster than imagined and that passengers are showing great confidence in air travel, ”said Marc Allen, Chief Strategy Officer of Boeing.

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